MarginKit

Inventory Decision Guide

How to calculate reorder point with lead time

Reorder point tells you when to place the next PO so inventory covers lead-time demand plus a risk buffer. This page goes beyond the formula and shows how demand pace, lead-time assumptions, and safety stock move the threshold.

Short direct answer

Reorder point = average daily sales x lead time (days) + safety stock. If either demand or lead time rises, reorder point should rise too.

Reorder-point formula breakdown

Reorder point = Lead-time demand + Safety stock = (Average daily sales x Lead time) + Safety stock

  • Lead-time demand: Units expected to sell while waiting for replenishment to arrive.
  • Safety stock: Buffer to absorb volatility in demand and delays in supply.
  • Practical use: Set reorder alerts at or above this threshold to reduce stockout risk.

Worked scenario

Worked example with lead-time logic

SKU baseline with medium demand and moderate supply risk.

Inputs

  • Average daily sales: 35 units
  • Lead time: 18 days
  • Safety stock: 220 units

Output

  • Lead-time demand: 630 units
  • Reorder point: 850 units
  • If stock drops below 850, reorder window is already tight

Scenario comparison

How demand profile changes reorder threshold

Lead time is fixed at 20 days to isolate demand impact.

ScenarioAverage daily salesLead timeSafety stockReorder point
Low demand18 units/day20 days120 units480 units
Medium demand32 units/day20 days180 units820 units
High demand48 units/day20 days250 units1,210 units

Demand sensitivity

Reorder point rises fast as daily sales increase

Three safety-stock assumptions are shown for the same 18-day lead time.

Safety stock 100Safety stock 200Safety stock 300
11540168797312591545102030405060Reorder point (units)Average daily sales

The distance between lines is pure safety stock policy. The slope of each line is lead time. If lead time is unstable, your reorder point should usually be more conservative, not tighter.

Example: at 35 units/day, changing lead time from 14 to 24 days adds 350 units to lead-time demand before safety stock. Many spreadsheet setups underweight this risk.

Common mistakes

  • Using old sales averages that ignore recent demand acceleration.
  • Assuming supplier lead time is stable when customs or freight is volatile.
  • Keeping safety stock unchanged across SKUs with different risk profiles.
  • Reordering too late because threshold is based on optimistic assumptions.

Operator takeaways

  • If stockouts persist, your reorder point is likely too aggressive.
  • If lead time is volatile, safety stock should absorb that volatility.
  • Review reorder assumptions whenever demand or supplier reliability shifts.
  • Use SKU-level thresholds instead of one global rule for all products.

Turn this into operational reorder thresholds

Calculate SKU-level reorder points, safety stock, and CSV-based alert status with your own data.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Clarifications for lead-time and threshold decisions.

Related

Related tools

Use these next to compare scenarios and validate decisions from multiple angles.